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Associate Professor
Ph.D. 1983, Philosophy
University of Illinois, Chicago
Send e-mail to
armendt@asu.edu
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Philosophy of Science, Decision Theory, Epistemology
My research centers on decision-making, strategic interaction, and the epistemology
of rational belief. There are close connections between these topics-our choices are
guided by our beliefs, and what we believe is indicated by what we do. The connections
are developed in detail in rational choice theory, and in epistemic probabilism,
an approach to understanding rational partial belief. Our beliefs and inferences
about causation have particular significance to both areas, and some of my work is
focused on causation and causal inference. I am also interested in understanding social
phenomena-patterns of behavior, norms, networks, communication systems-as products
and conditions of complex interactions among individuals. How do complex models of
individual interactions (evolutionary and agent-based models) explain such phenomena,
if and when they do? I also have an historical interest in the work of the remarkable early
20th-century philosopher, Frank Ramsey.
Selected Publications | CV (PDF)
"Frank Ramsey," (2006) in The Philosophy of Science: An Encyclopedia, S. Sarkar and J Pfeifer, eds., Routledge, pp. 671-681.
"Dutch books, Additivity, and Utility Theory," Philosophical Topics, 1993.
"Conditional Preference and Causal Expected Utility," Causation in
Decision, Belief Change, and Statistics, Reidel, 1988.
"A Foundation for Causal Decision Theory," Topoi, 1986.
"Is There a Dutch Book Argument for Probability Kinematics?" Philosophy of Science, 1980.
